Frequent short-term borrowing could be a black mark against you when applying for a home loan.
“The number of short-term loans you burn through may warn banks or other lenders that you’re having trouble managing your finances,” says Renier Kriek, Managing Director at disruptive home finance business, Sentinel Homes.

That can make them reluctant to fund your dream of owning your own property.

Easy debt
While all debt should be managed responsibly to maintain a good credit score, for many South Africans, short-term loans are becoming an addictive way to make ends meet. Or, to fund luxuries they can’t afford but refuse to live without.

It’s tantalisingly easy to get hooked as well - you don’t need to put up collateral to get one and you don’t have to explain what you’ll use the money for. Also, some like to think that if they fall behind on their repayments, they can simply submit themselves to a debt review.

Introduced by the National Credit Act, a debt review is a legal process for someone who is over-indebted to settle with their creditors by paying what they can afford. A registered debt counsellor will review their finances and help them create a repayment plan.

The hidden costs
Unfortunately, there’s no such thing as a free lunch. Short-term loans can carry much higher interest rates than other types of debt - up to 5% per month, which is around 6 times the current prime rate. “So, the more you borrow, the worse off you become financially and the more likely you are to default,” says Kriek.

That debt review “solution” you are being offered isn’t necessarily a safe bet either - because it will cut you off from any further credit provision for as long as it takes to remedy your past bad behaviour.

Even if you’re not a repeat offender, firms offering debt counselling will often assure you that your debts will be forgiven, the slate is wiped clean and all will be forgiven. “In the real world, lenders could deny your home loan application simply because you needed debt review in the first place,” says Kriek.

Alarm bells
Short-term or unsecured loans are not an evil to be avoided entirely. They’re actually good for the economy when used responsibly.

However, they’re also a red flag to home loan providers when they feature strongly in your financial history, even if you’re keeping up with repayments.

Credit providers use various risk models to identify patterns in our spending behaviour - good and bad. They know what financially responsible and irresponsible spending patterns look like.

“Frequent short-term loans - with or without defaulting - are a risky pattern that implies an individual does not manage debt well, and that is something a home loan provider does not want to make a long-term investment in,” says Kriek. “The ability to delay gratification is the underlying attribute that responsible users of credit have, but there is no easy way to quantify whether a particular applicant possesses that trait – the number, frequency and type of unsecured credit transactions is a useful proxy in that regard.”

Good debt
So, what is the right course of action, especially if you already have short-term loans?

First, understand that short-term loans have their place but are seldom necessary. Stop using them and make a plan to pay off the ones you already have. Then get to work on building an emergency fund of cash that can only be touched for true emergencies, so that you will not need unsecured debt in those cases.

Second, work on saving for luxuries such as holidays and large capital purchases. You will be paying monthly anyway, whether you take the credit or save, but in the saving scenario interest will be working in your favour rather than against you. Delaying the gratification of that large purchase is difficult, but no-one said adulting would be easy.

Finally, if there is no other option, opt for “good” debt as far as possible. Buy your clothes, furniture, appliances, groceries and other items using store credit if you absolutely cannot do without. You don’t have to buy things you don’t need to build a good credit score. Everyday items and normal household purchases are fine.

“Credit providers’ risk algorithms generally look favorably on consumers who start their credit journey with store debt because it fits the pattern of responsible spending, provided you pay your accounts on time, of course, and do not spend near or above your credit limit,” says Kriek.

Long-term planning
Eventually, most people end up before a home loan provider in the hope of buying a house they love. But lenders are profit makers and risk reducers, so it’s important to think like they do.

Are you a good investment? Will you repay your home loan on time and in full? The lender’s modern analytical systems - often powered now by artificial intelligence - evolved to answer questions like these and exist to protect their owner from risk.

“Short-term loans that literally fund your lifestyle can easily sway the algorithm against you,” says Kriek, “especially if you are funding luxuries or nice-to-haves from easy debt rather than developing the discipline of saving.”
 
ENDS

Recently, the South African Reserve Bank reduced the repo rate by 25 basis points but the real interest rate remains far too high to spur meaningful capital investment by South Africa’s private sector. While the news brings some welcome relief to property owners, it’s another disappointment for the country’s real economy.

This is according to Renier Kriek, Managing Director at Sentinel Homes. “The SARB has consistently preached that their policy bible contains only one chapter, titled ‘inflation targeting’, which requires sticking to within their 3–6% inflation target band and anchoring inflation expectations at the 4.5% midpoint,” he says.

“Their messaging has consistently and unfailingly pledged that their mandate is the only consideration that guides their decisions.”

False policy
Yet, inflation has remained low over an extended period, currently sitting at 2.8%, leaving the opportunity for a softening of monetary policy wide open. Why then has the SARB stubbornly refused to reduce the interest rate accordingly, even as inflation hovers at or below the bottom of their target band?

Despite preaching vague and opaque ‘risks to the upside’ to justify their hawkishness in recent years, it’s clear that the  SARB has been disingenuous – in short, they have been lying to us. That was made plain for the first time today, but it has long been evident there is a secret driver of their decisions.

“It was clear with the announcement that the SARB’s policy bible has contained a new chapter, which is their anticipated future mandate, and they have already been guided by that expanded gospel, despite the existence of the chapter having been secret and further despite the content of the chapter not having been agreed to with Treasury and other stakeholders,” says Kriek.

Why now?
The argument advanced by the Monetary Policy Committee, by way of Governor Kganyago’s statement and answers to questions during the press conference, is that the MPC wishes to deal a decisive blow to inflation in the long term, transforming the SA economy to a low(er) inflation economy.

This will also mean lower interest rates for longer in future, per the MPC’s reasoning, since lower inflation economies generally tend to have lower inflation rates.

“However, the question is why do we want to do this now?” says Kriek. “Moving to a lower inflation target will likely have long-term positive consequences for the SA economy, but it will also involve near-dated discomfort. Essentially, the MPC is promising short-term pain for long-term gain.”

“The SA economy is a very frail patient at the moment and keeping interest rates at current high levels in order to achieve longer-term outcomes is a risky gambit. We should at least be asking, and this is as much about political calculation as economic policy, whether we should not attempt monetary stimulus first, getting the economy out of its bandages, and attempt the MPC’s incisive reforms once the patient is back on its feet.”

Impact of delinquency
The property sector has shown signs of broad-based recovery, with price lines across all the metros trending upwards in Stats SA’s latest Residential Property Price Index.

The cumulative 75 bps cuts, with a further cut at today’s meeting, have already had the effect of bringing previously pent-up demand spilling into the residential property market. However, while these are green shoots, the market is still under significant strain.

According to National Credit Regulator statistics, home loan delinquency is up 35% in the last 3 years, signifying the tremendous pressure households are experiencing related to their finances.

“This sharp increase in delinquency will come home to roost soon, as a sudden influx of distressed stock in the market is likely to drive prices down in the face of relatively tepid demand,” says Kriek.

A small window of opportunity
Households seeking to enter the market should not delay any further. The MPC found that a neutral policy should be 25 bps lower than the new repo rate of 7.25%, meaning we can expect at least one more cut in the near future.

So, it is more likely than not that the upwards momentum evidenced by the aforementioned green shoots will be sustained and expanded as the market adjusts to lower rates.

The decision at the next meeting will be led by the MPC’s insistence on pre-emptive management of monetary policy through its anticipated new mandate, and so the CPI inflation reports from now until the next meeting in July 2025 will have to be watched closely.

“It seems that if inflation inches higher even slightly, the MPC’s overly hawkish instincts will rule decision-making at the next meeting, favouring keeping rates steady despite low employment and flaccid economic growth,” says Kriek.

ENDS

Nothing is certain except death and taxes, the saying goes. Property owners must plan for both if they want their home and other assets to pass smoothly to those surviving them.

“Structuring your estate smartly, or at least having a will in place, will spare those grieving your passing further hardship, both emotional and financial,” says Renier Kriek, Managing Director at Sentinel Homes.

Any decision a property holder makes in this regard should be guided by advice from a professionally qualified financial and estate advisor. However, Kriek offers a good overview.

Basic factors
When planning for death, property owners need to consider two main factors.

The first is how to structure their estate so they don’t directly own anything when they die. This is usually only appropriate for those with large estates and minor dependents, or businesspeople who risk having their assets attached to repay creditors, but may not be the best tax planning advice for most consumers.

The second concern is their marital status. Are they single, married in community of property, or married out of community of property either with or without accrual?

“Each marriage model will affect the distribution of an estate differently,” says Kriek.

Make a will
Without a will, intestate rules apply to the deceased estate, as prescribed by the Intestate Succession Act 81 of 1987.

These rules determine which surviving relatives will inherit what portion of the estate, from the surviving spouse and descendents down to distant blood relatives.

The Act’s complex requirements could result in, for example, a spouse losing their family home to ensure they and each child receives an equal inheritance.

So, for anyone having assets such as homes or other fixed property and especially those property owners who have dependents, it is always best to have a will professionally drawn up to make sure assets will be distributed in a manner desired by the property owner.

“Again, the marriage model will affect how the will should be structured,” says Kriek. “Estate planning with a licensed and regulated professional is also likely to include investments and insurance, proper planning of which remain essential.”

Leverage trusts and companies
The beginning of the article mentioned not owning property at death, which is a desired outcome for some consumers due to tax, risk or other reasons. Avoiding direct property ownership while still enjoying the benefit of owning property can be accomplished through the use of a trust or company.

However, the cost of these vehicles makes them best suited to more affluent people who have larger estates and minor dependents, or entrepreneurs.

If property is transferred to or bought through one of these entities, the entity owns the asset. So, dying is of no consequence, if one’s dependents are the ultimate beneficial owners of the entity, such as through being beneficiaries of a trust.

The property held by a trust or company rather than in a person’s own name will not be subject to estate tax or capital gains tax at death, and typically cannot be attached by the deceased’s creditors. Only income that is earned through that property is taxed at a rate prescribed for the specific type of entity in addition to capital gains tax if the entity elects to sell the property concerned.

“Which structure is best suited to an individual’s needs must be determined with the help of a trusted estate planner or financial manager,” says Kriek. “Do not assume that the more complicated structure, using entities such as trusts and companies, is the “better” and therefore most appropriate one.”

Address affordability
Unfortunately, structuring cannot save a property that surviving family members are unable to afford, whether it is bond repayments, rates or levies, trust administration fees, corporate accounting fees, or other expenses. This could happen if a surviving spouse does not work and cannot raise the required finances to settle existing debt against the family home or other property.

An estate might be able to cover its own costs, for example, where income is derived from rental properties or the entity receives cash bequests from the deceased person. Otherwise, a will, trust or company should be backed by some form of insurance that ensures funds are available after the owner’s death.

“By following this rough guide and using a properly qualified and licensed financial planner, you will allow your loved ones to continue enjoying the life you worked so hard to provide them with,” says Kriek.

ENDS


MEDIA CONTACT: Rosa-Mari Le Roux, [email protected], 060 995 6277, www.atthatpoint.co.za 
For more information on Sentinel Homes please visit:
Website: www.sentinelhomes.co.za
Facebook: Sentinel Homes

South Africa has a housing supply backlog of at least 2.2 million units, with a significant shortage in the affordable housing or “gap market”, according to a recent study by the Centre for Affordable Housing Finance (CAHF).

The gap housing market is generally considered to be households earning too much to qualify for Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) housing but too little to obtain traditional bank-financed homes in the open market.

Renier Kriek, MD at Sentinel Homes, says 40% of consumers fall into the RDP housing category (household incomes below R3 500 per month) and the wealthiest 30% of households are well-served by the open housing market.

Massive demand
The gap market is the middle 30% of consumers where the supply of housing stock is extremely low and even declining despite massive demand. Kriek argues that a market design error is to blame for this high demand going unmet. Adverse market design disincentivises the holders of capital to invest in affordable housing.

The biggest hurdle relates to the unnecessary prolix, cumbersome, and expensive processes that are associated with evictions and foreclosures. The cost of resetting the transaction (evict or foreclose) is prohibitive in South Africa and does not match market circumstances.

South Africa should adjust their regulatory environment to favour private sector investment and the expansion of supply. 

“We need to reduce the transaction cost for the holders of capital to take their chances on consumers who are not acceptable risks in the unduly high tenure security environment. In this way, some people will move into the formal housing market and fall out again, and perhaps more than once in their lifetime. If we go through enough of these cycles eventually everyone will be housed.”

Kriek admits that this solution may sound slightly callous and counterintuitive to the casual listener.

“The alternative, retaining our restrictive policy environment, is even more callous and is currently barring people from ever getting the opportunity to enter the formal housing market. What use is being born free if you will never realise that constitutionally mandated right of access to adequate housing?”

Unintended consequences
Another prevalent and reasonably fixable market design problem relates to government subsidies. The Department of Human Settlements has been offering the First Home Finance (FHF) subsidy, previously called FliSP to households in the gap housing market.

It aims to subsidize affordable first-time home-ownership opportunities for households with income from R3 501 up to R22 000 per month. It is an inverse means-tested subsidy, meaning that the cash grant is lower the higher the household income becomes.

“Millions of rands earmarked for this subsidy have remained unclaimed in the past and continue to remain unclaimed. This is not because people do not know about the incentive or do not desire it. The first challenge is the relative scarcity of gap housing stock, which is driven by poor demand due to incentives that are adverse to the deployment of capital in this segment, whether by landlords or home loan providers.”

Kriek argues that the subsidy design has unintended consequences resulting in market participants, such as estate agents, being unwilling to sell to subsidy recipients. “Due to overzealous fraud prevention measures and perhaps also an unwillingness to integrate into the existing market infrastructure, government has traditionally insisted that the registered title deed contains the name of the subsidy recipient before they release the subsidy amount.”

This means that the subsidy portion is usually received months after the transfer, unlike all other funds in a property transaction which are secured by third party payment functionaries such as banks or attorneys.

This makes each property transfer involving a subsidy inordinately complex, and everyone involved prefers doing the same transaction with a consumer who does not rely on a subsidy. Usually, it’s the estate agent waiting for the subsidy payment to receive their commission, and that is simply an unacceptable adverse incentive if government’s intention is to have the subsidy reach its intended recipients.”

Though recent developments seem to favour fixing the market design shortcomings of FHF, the administration of the subsidy remains positively byzantine. There is a national subsidy authority, that can approve and pay subsidies, and a separate subsidy authority for each of the provinces, each with a unique set of rules and procedures and a separate application procedure.

This is a quagmire for lower income consumers to navigate successfully, especially where those who rely on subsidies are already viewed negatively by market intermediaries such as estate agents and transferring attorneys.

It will take significant political capital to implement market design solutions that can solve the problems facing the gap housing market. If we do nothing it may even get worse, says Kriek, who fears that the current government may not have the ability to adequately diagnose the problem, and much less the political will to affect the necessary policy and regulatory changes.

However, if it could succeed, the job creation that could follow finding solutions to the problem of housing supply could go a long way toward achieving the job creation efforts of government recently articulated in the President’s State of the Nation address to parliament.

ENDS
 
MEDIA CONTACT: Rosa-Mari Le Roux, [email protected], 060 995 6277, www.atthatpoint.co.za 
For more information on Sentinel Homes please visit:
Website: www.sentinelhomes.co.za

The significant decline in the number of people who can keep their mortgage accounts up to date clearly illustrates the level of financial distress consumers are currently experiencing.
 
Historically around 92% of all mortgage accounts were up to date, but it has been dropping quite dramatically in recent times. The latest available figure shows it is down to 88% in the last quarter of 2023. That means home loan accounts with arrears have increased by about 50% recently, and it happened in the relatively short time span of 18 months to December 2023.
 
Globally inflation has been quite stubborn and interest rates remain high as a result. In South Africa the repurchase rate (repo rate) of the South African Reserve Bank reached its highest level in 15 years, says Renier Kriek, managing director of Sentinel Homes. This means the prime rate, used to price home loans and other consumer debt like car loans and credit cards, is elevated.
 
High inflation, and the high interest rate response, has been caused by a confluence of factors including the hangover from previous quantitative easing, supply-chain bottlenecks during the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war and the recent conflict in the Middle East.
 
Despite earlier predictions that the high interest rate cycle could turn around in May this year it is now only expected next year due to high inflation proving stickier than anticipated.
 
“Being unable to afford your home loan instalment is not a position anyone wants to find themselves in. Steer your own boat rather than leaving it to the vagaries of the foreclosure process. Not taking control of the situation can be financially disastrous,” advises Kriek.
 
Prevention better than cure
He urges homeowners to come to an agreement with their home loan credit provider before they miss the first payment. Stick to the arrangement. Do not over-promise and under-deliver.
 
“If you couldn’t make an arrangement in advance of missing a payment, and you’ve already fallen into arrears, pay something toward the debt immediately. Just pay anything you can and keep on doing that as a launchpad for negotiations with your home financier.” Accounts that are receiving payments are less likely to face hand-over and foreclosure than accounts receiving no payments.
 
“Do not let unreasonable hope be the enemy of your future financial well-being,” he adds. If the cause of your financial distress is unlikely abate within a reasonable time, call it a day and list the property for sale with an estate agent. Be realistic and pro-active.
 
He recommends that distressed homeowners market their property before the home financier’s attorneys come knocking, ensuring a better return on the sale. “You will also avoid a slew of additional costs once the bank starts with the foreclosure process. These only serve to make your poorer, adding insult to injury.”
 
Some people, particularly men in Kriek’s experience, tend to be too proud to discuss financial matters with family and friends. Many families are caught by surprise when there is suddenly talk about foreclosure, having missed the opportunity to assist along the road. “Reach out to the people you love and trust, there may be a lifeline from someone who will understand your circumstances and can assess the situation with much higher fidelity than a remote credit provider.”
 
Forbearance before foreclosure
Credit providers may be willing to assist a distressed homeowner by offering a payment holiday or by granting an interest-only period. It may also be possible to spread any existing arrears over a few months ‘repayments or extending the term of loan.  This is especially true when the bar to payment is temporary, such as hospitalization or sudden retrenchment
 
It is also important for consumers not to fall prey to over-enthusiastic debt counsellors. Many unscrupulous operators in that industry market debt counselling as a cure for all debt related ills. Entering debt counselling may not, in fact, save your home, but may still have a potentially disastrous effect on your future finances. For instance, debt review stops you from taking any new debt for several years while the debt review is completed.
 
Kriek says there is a general misconception that home loans are “money-spinners” for home loan companies such as the banks. It only takes a couple of missed payments for home loan provider to be “under water” with a home loan. Do not labour under the misapprehension that you are doing the bank a favour by having a home loan with them – the home loan itself is not a very lucrative proposition.
 
Nevertheless, the fixed costs of originating new home loans are quite high. Banks, home loan or credit providers generally prefer to rehabilitate existing customers rather than terminating the agreement, foreclosing, and then having to originate new debt.
 
Take all opportunities to steer your own boat off the foreclosure rocks.  Your finances cannot afford to be shipwrecked there.
 
ENDS

 
MEDIA CONTACT: Rosa-Mari Le Roux, [email protected], 060 995 6277, www.atthatpoint.co.za 
 
For more information on Sentinel Homes please visit:
Website: www.sentinelhomes.co.za
Facebook: Sentinel Homes

The local property market will see a resurgence in 2024 predicts Renier Kriek, Managing Director at Sentinel Homes.
 
"People have been held back from buying and selling property by various factors since before the COVID lockdown, but that is about to change for the better," he says.
 
Factors impacting the local property market
In South Africa, property buying and selling have dropped steadily since 2021. In 2023, market volume was about 5% lower than 2019.
 
The factors driving this decline include load shedding, the national logistical backlog, a stalling economy, runaway inflation, the rising cost of living, and a 475 basis point increase in the lending rate since the COVID lockdown ended.
 
However, people's life circumstances continue to change, suggesting pent up demand building below the surface.
 
The number of first time buyers – a solid indicator of market demand – has also decreased significantly, again implying that unsatisfied demand exists.
 
Outlook for 2024
Two main events signal that things are about to change.
 
First, economists agree that, as inflation slows in South Africa, SARB will likely reduce the interest rate at its May or July National Planning Commission meeting in line with the US Fed.
 
Second, the country will hold general elections this year, and probably be led for the first time by a coalition government at national level. While this might concern South Africans, it also promises to bring new energy to solving the nation's dilemmas.
 
Kriek believes both these events will turn out well and will provide a release for the evident demand for property. "Then, we'll see a dramatic increase in market activity," he says.
 
Several lesser trends are also worth watching.
 
Smart money in the market
Right now, there's a lot of smart money in the market – entities that buy properties to boost their portfolios, not their lifestyle.
 
Interest rates on mortgage loans have decreased significantly, partly because banks are competing for a shrinking market, but also because these investors are richer, have better credit records and present a much lower risk than the average buyer. They are also paying higher deposits up to 105 percent.
In the same vein, wealthy buyers from abroad are snapping up luxury properties in Cape Town above R20 million.
 
This trend is sure to continue into 2024 as that smart money looks to acquire more assets before the market turns.
 
Semigration
Semigration remains a major trend in 2024 and smaller towns will continue to be targeted for gentrification, no longer only in the popular Western Cape but across the country.
 
As more affluent buyers seek stock in these locations, incumbents will see their property value rocket.
 
This may not be the only incentive for them to sell, though. Increases in rates and the cost of living may become unaffordable for them, pressuring them to move elsewhere. But where will they go?
 
With more than 80 percent of all building plan approvals being in coastal areas currently, the answer is plain to see.
 
Co-buying
There is a marked increase in co-buying, that is, people buying a property together with someone other than their spouse. This includes friends, unmarried couples, investors and those with business intentions. About one in every four properties purchased is now co-bought.
 
This approach overcomes the gap between property prices and income, and is a way for younger people to enter the market while spreading risk between them.
 
Banks have also changed their policies to accommodate co-buying, with some allowing up to 12 individuals to join in the application.
 
Buy-to-let boom
The buy-to-let market is booming, especially in the Western Cape. One reason is that, due to insufficient stock and higher property prices at the coast, many semigrants rent while they shop around for an affordable property or while their new home is being built.
 
This growing demand provides a good incentive for buy-to-let landlords to invest in new homes and apartments, despite the high construction costs.
 
Almost 11% of all bond applications are currently investment purchases.
 
Smaller properties
Another continuing trend in 2024 will be smaller plots and smaller properties.
 
High construction costs make it very difficult to create new stock that competes with existing stock in the market.
 
So, both tenants and buyers will have to adapt to reduced living space unless they can afford to build their own at a premium.
 
Relief for homeowners
The number of buyers may be low but owners are also holding onto their properties for dear life, in the face of crippling interest rates.
 
Unfortunately, foreclosure may have forced some to sell. Yet, the predicted drop in interest rates promises relief to those who managed to stay afloat.
 
It could also mean an influx of buyers for anyone who desperately wants to unburden themselves of their property.
 
When will the change happen?
Kriek expects the dam to break in the coming winter. This is not a prime time for property sales, however, especially in the Western Cape. During this season, people tend to buy fewer properties or buy them at a reduced rate.
 
"With lower transaction volumes during the winter months, there is likely to be a slight buyer's market that will turn to a seller's market in spring," he says.

 
ENDS
 
MEDIA CONTACT: Rosa-Mari Le Roux, [email protected], 060 995 6277, www.atthatpoint.co.za 
 
For more information on Sentinel Homes please visit:
Website: www.sentinelhomes.co.za
Facebook: Sentinel Homes